Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/27/2012 -- BMI View: On the back of new information from the Turkish Statistical Office, we have increased our forecasts for 2011/12 grains production. Wheat output, in particular, is likely to be higher than previously expected owing to favourable weather conditions. We expect little change in the country's output in 2012/13 as moderating global grains prices and low government support prices are likely to discourage farmers from increasing plantings. The livestock sector continues to be impacted by the import ban on genetically modified corn, leaving domestic feed prices at high levels. We therefore forecast only small growth for poultry and beef production in 2011/12. For sugar, we still expect a tight domestic market as government regulations discourage production growth. In this context, we see the reappearance of smuggling in order to fill shortages in the market.
- Corn production growth to 2015/16: 49.5% to 6.3mn tonnes. Corn output will be buoyed in the short term by rising prices and over the long term by domestic demand from the livestock sector.
- Rice consumption growth to 2016: 7.5% to 727,000 tonnes. Much of this increase demand will be due to base effects, although the main reason for growth after 2012 will be population increases.
- Beef production growth to 2015/16: 5.4% to 655,350 tonnes. As producers look to tap into strong domestic growth in line with rising food consumption figures, output is expected to rise.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 1.9% (down from 8.5% in 2011; predicted to average 5.2% over 2011- 2016).
- Food price inflation: 8.8% on average in 2012, (up from 6.5% on average in 2011).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$21.8bn in 2011/12, forecast to average US$22.3bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
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On February 28, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) purchased an additional 100,000 tonnes of wheat and 100,000 tonnes of barley from imports in anticipation of the end of the government grains procurement programme in March. Overall, the TMO purchased 815,000 tonnes of wheat and 168,980 tonnes of barley in 2011/12, taking government stocks to 1.2mn tonnes. This, in addition to privately held stocks, will take the country's ending stocks to about 2.1mn tonnes in 2011/12, significantly higher than the 10-year average of 1.4mn tonnes.
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