Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/05/2012 -- BMI View: Our view is that, as one of the world's major emerging economies, Turkey will continue to attract international investment across many industries. However, multinational drugmakers looking to invest should be fully aware of the dichotomy of the market: the long-term macroeconomic and demographic indicators are highly favourable, but the government's continued involvement and intervention, particularly in regard to drug pricing, has meant innovative drugmakers have to sell their medicines at a heavy discount compared with developed Europe. Suggestions that the government will no longer pursue strict drug price negotiations should be welcomed, but firms will require something more concrete before reassessing their view on the market. Multinationals may find that efforts by the government to favour procurement from firms with a local production or research and development (R&D) presence could be as damaging as the price cuts for the companies excluded from this group.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: TRY17.21bn (US$10.24bn) in 2011 to TRY18.10bn (US$7.78bn) in 2012; +5.2% in local currency terms and -4.5% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Healthcare: TRY83.58bn (US$49.74bn) in 2011 to TRY91.12bn (US$49.25bn) in 2012; +9.0% in local currency terms and -1.0%in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Medical devices: TRY4.33bn (US$2.57bn) in 2011 to TRY4.75bn (US$2.57bn) in 2012; +9.7% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast increased from Q312 on account of new historical data.
Risk/Reward Rating: In our latest regional matrix, comprising 20 key markets in Emerging Europe, Turkey remains 11th, despite a 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decrease in its composite score. The reduction is a result of the weakened outlook for the country's pharmaceutical market, as measured in US dollars. Globally, Turkey is sandwiched between Latvia above and Estonia below, ranking 45th out of 95 countries surveyed.
Key Trends And Developments
- In April 2012, and contrary to our original expectations, US-based biotechnology company Amgen announced that it was acquiring 95.6% of shares in Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi Pharmaceuticals (MN), a privately-held Turkish generic drugmaker. According to the firm, the transaction will significantly expand its presence in Turkey and the surrounding region, which are large, fast-growing, priority markets for Amgen. In addition to Amgen, six global pharmaceutical companies, including US-based Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck & Co, Mylan, Abbott Laboratories and Fresenius were interested in the Turkish producer.
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