Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector.
We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Mexico from 3.5% to 3.9% in 2014. The latest GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the third quarter of 2013.
In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that auto manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico.
The longer term outlook looks bright too; we have upgraded our 10-year average real GDP growth from 3.8% to 4.1%, following the passage of energy sector reform, which we expect will garner significant foreign investment in the coming years.
Headline Industry Data
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- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 forecast to be 7.2%, reaching 30.9mn tonnes.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2014 forecast to be 3.6%, reaching 22.1mn tonnes.
- Mexico trade real growth forecast at 4.48% in 2014.
Key Trends And Developments
Maersk Line Expanding On Intra-America Routes: Global container shipping company Maersk Line's launch of its new intra-America service signals what BMI believes will become a trend, as shipping lines increase their exposure to the intra-America market in time for the completion of the Panama Canal expansion in 2015. This intra-America trend will be supported by a strong US-Latin America trade relationship, and will be further bolstered by the US' strengthening macroeconomic outlook.
Bunker's de Mexico Launches First Independent Bunker Terminal: Marine fuel distributor Bunker's de Mexico has launched the first independent bunker terminal in the country. The bunker, which has multiple tanks dedicated to fuel oil and gas oil storage, is situated in the port of Lazaro Cardenas on the country's Pacific coast. The oil and gas terminal, which has a total capacity of 20,000 tonnes, has both inline and in-tank blending equipment, according to Bunker's de Mexico.
Contecon To Invest in the Port of Manzanillo: Contecon is to invest 7mn pesos (US$ 520bn) by 2022 in the expansion of the Port of Manzanillo, the company's CEO, Enrique Gutierrez, has said. Construction of Terminal II is planned in three stages. 'We started operations with Maersk and we expect to finish the month with three more: MSC, CMA CGM and CSAV,' said Pamela de la Vega, commercial manager at Contecon. BMI notes that the port's main competition is the Port of Vercruz.
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