Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/14/2014 -- Looking to 2015 and beyond, we maintain our view that the market will slow from its current pace, but positive growth, can be sustained over our forecast period to 2018, particularly if a soft landing for the housing market - a key indicator of light truck demand - can be successfully engineered. Our expectation for no rate hikes until the end of 2015 at the earliest also bodes well for vehicle sales, as auto loans have been driving growth in recent years thanks to low rates and longer terms.

However, this does exacerbate an issue we have previously highlighted in that household deleveraging will need to take place over the span of our forecast period. While the more painful recovery has seen US debt-to-GDP fall from 95% in Q109 to 76.7% in Q413, Canadian debt-to-GDP has continued to climb, reaching 97.4% at the end of 2013. Addressing this will impact private consumption. Nevertheless our average annual forecast of 1.8% growth in light vehicle sales for 2015-18 is positive for a developed state and will see the market on the brink of 2mn units by 2018.

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In the heavier truck segment, a healthy order book and the improvement in sales over the year so far, with 3.9% y-o-y decline for 4M14 becoming growth of 0.65% y-o-y by the end of H114, aligns with our view of 4.7% growth in the freight sector in 2014 driving demand for heavy trucks, although this relies on most of these orders being converted throughout the year to meet our 5.0% sales growth forecast. Looking further ahead, our forecast for an even bigger increase in freight tonnage of 5.39% in 2015, is also supportive of our forecast for 2.0% average growth in truck sales for the 2015-2018 forecast period.

For domestic suppliers, however, the growth opportunities still appear to be elsewhere in the region, as Magna International has announced investment in a new plant in Tennessee. Having said earlier in the year it would no longer invest in new domestic plants, this project is another example of the US being...

The Canada Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Canada.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian automotives market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI?s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

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