Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/15/2014 -- Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing volumes in all freight modes but one, 2014 will signal growth across the whole freight transport sector and new historic high freight volume levels in some of the modes.
US demand is set to continue recovering in 2014, while eurozone we believe will only return to the path of recovery. Development in both major economies will have a positive effect on throughput at Hong Kong's port, which caters as a container shipping hub for Asia, and also the country's air freight volumes, with Hong Kong boasting the busiest cargo airport globally.
The port of Hong Kong is forecast to demonstrate growth both in tonnage and box throughput in 2014, after they were hindered by a forty day strike at the port in 2013. Although up until 2012 it was managing to weather the competition from the development of Shenzhen as China's second largest container port and despite the close proximity of the two facilities was managing to retain its lead, Hong Kong is now lost it to Shenzhen, which, BMI believes, also had its container throughput bolstered as a result of the Hong Kong 2013 strike, as some shippers re-routed there to avoid the industrial action. We, however, also highlight that the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.
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Hong Kong's air freight volumes are forecast to continue increasing in 2014. The country's road freight volumes, more reliant on domestic growth outlook, rather than that of the international freight sector, will be boosted on the back of an improvement in Hong Kong's real GDP growth, which is forecast to accelerate to a 3.0% in 2014.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.5%
- 2014 Port of Hong Kong throughput is forecast to grow by 1%
- 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.2%
- 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 6.3%
- 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 4.2%.
Key Industry Trends
Cathay Pacific Decline Continues, but Strategy for Growth in Place: Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Cargo starts 2014 in decline, continuing the y-o-y drop in freight carried by the airline for the whole of 2013. The company's strategy indicates a three-pronged approach to the tough operating climate, with the airline decreasing its capacity in line with the weakened market, expanding into new regions which offer stronger growth opportunities and investing for the longer term.
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