Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/17/2014 -- We maintained our forecasts for the Indian electricity sector this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant. We highlight that certain key themes - namely continued weakness in the economy, further coal shortages, and poor regulatory frameworks - are likely to remain prevalent even in the long term. From a long-term perspective, we expect thermal energy to maintain its position as the backbone of the Indian power sector, but believe it is unlikely the Indian government will meet its electricity capacity and generation targets.
We maintained our 2014 forecasts for electricity generation and consumption in India as our short-term assumptions remain relevant. We had revised down our forecasts in our previous analysis of the sector due to challenges in the power sector that resulted in major power shortages, as well as our more cautious outlook for the Indian economy and find the situation remains largely unchanged.
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We have also maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts for the Indian power sector this quarter. We expect electricity generation to grow an average of 5.5% per annum between 2014 and 2023, driven mainly by thermal and renewable energy. We highlight a number of key themes will remain prevalent in the Indian power sector over the long-term.
Key Trends And Developments
- The victory of Narendra Modi in the 2014 elections is positive for the sector as he is likely to introduce reforms to the power sector that focus on reducing red tape for new projects and improving fuel supply.
- A report by the Central Electricity Authority revealed the country faced a power deficit of over 12,000MW during peak hours in FY2012-13 (April-March).
- Coal India increased the price of low-grade coal by 10% on May 27 and this grade of coal is most commonly used in electricity generation.
- Renewable energy is growing increasingly bankable and many Indian utilities and companies are investing in the sector.
- Despite ambitious plans by the Indian government...
The India Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The India Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks India's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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