Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/14/2014 -- Despite the geopolitical uncertainty rising from the Russian intervention in Kiev, we believe that Moldova's healthcare and pharmaceutical market will continue to grow in 2014 as the economy continues to improve. This is because Moscow's intervention in Ukraine has substantially raised the likelihood of the signing of an Association Agreement with the EU. This will give access to a large market and offset the restrictions on migrant workers imposed by Russia as Moldovan migrant workers, whose remittances contribute nearly 20 per cent to Moldovan GDP, gain access to the EU's market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: MDL2.73bn (US$214mn) in 2013 to MDL2.91bn (US$230mn) in 2014; +6.3% in local currency terms and +7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q114 due to improved economic conditions.
- Healthcare: MDL10.33bn (US$830mn) in 2013 to MDL11.16bn (US$880mn) in 2014; +8.0% in local currency terms and +6.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased slightly from Q113 because of improved economic conditions.
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Risk/Reward Rating: Moldova sits in penultimate place in our Q214 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Ranking 19th out of a total of 20 markets, Moldova performs poorly in terms of both Risks and Rewards, posting a score of 39.5.
Key Trends And Developments
- In March 2014, Romania and Moldova signed an emergency response co-operation. The agreement on the reciprocal mutual assistance for cross-border interventions in case of medical emergency.
- In March 2014, Italy-based Indena moved into Romania and Moldova with Azelis, saying that despite the small size of the markets, the potential remained as high as that in Poland 20 years ago.
- In February 2014, the WHO applauded the impressive progress Moldova has made in tobacco control in recent years and the capacities in place to implement effective policies.
BMI Economic View: We expect export growth to remain strong as the regional economic recovery accelerates, though we still forecast a trade deficit rising to US$3.7bn in 2014. Prime Minister Iurie Leanca said in January that the country would seek a new long-term assistance programme from the IMF this year focussing on three main areas lasting up to 15 years: fiscal and budget sustainability, consolidation of the financial sector, and maintaining a prudent monetary policy. An IMF plan would provide an anchor for ongoing economic reforms to match those being undertaken in the political sphere, as well as useful funding to cover the country's budget deficits going forward.
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