Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/26/2013 -- BMI View: Strong government support and industry interest in developing a nascent shale gas industry in Poland leaves BMI cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's gas production outlook. We expected modest volumes of shale gas to be commercially produced by 2016. Poland's obligations to reduce its carbon emissions by 2020 under EU policy will also lead to a marked rise in its gas consumption as the country switches from coal to gas for power generation.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's Oil & Gas sector are:

- Undeterred by the Polish Geological Institute (PGI)'s downward revision of its recoverable shale gas estimates - from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s previous estimates of 5.3trn cubic metres (tcm) to 0.346-0.768tcm - Poland is sticking to Prime Minister Donald Tusk's late 2014/early 2015 schedule for the commercial production of shale gas. We are cautiously optimistic on Poland's shale gas prospects and expect to see gas production rise from 6.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 7.2bcm in 2016, thanks to modest domestic shale gas production. Gas output will rise at a quicker pace thereafter to reach 14.2bcm by 2021.
- Shale gas exploration in Poland continues to present a mixed picture. ExxonMobil pulled the plug on the search for shale gas in June 2012, after two test wells in the Lublin and Podlasie Basins failed to flow commercial quantities of gas. UK-based independent 3Legs Resources also bowed out of its Dabie-Laski concession in August 2012. On the other hand, San Leon Energy, Aurelian Oil and Gas, Talisman and local gas giant PGNiG have had encouraging results from their exploration activity. French major Total has also reaffirmed its commitment to Poland's shale plays. The Ministry of Environment expects 41 more wells to be drilled in 2012.
- Poland's treasury has called for refiner Grupa Lotos SA to expand its non-refining portfolio, particularly in the upstream segment, mirroring a trend in the country whereby the government is pushing state-owned firms into the development of its shale gas resources. A consortium consisting of PGNiG, copper miner KGHM and utilities companies Polska Grupa Energetyczna, Tauron and Polska Energia is considering a shale gas joint venture (JV) while . Poland's largest refiner PKN Orlen announced in July 2012 that it plans to spend US$87bn on shale gas exploration in 2012 alone.

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