Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/22/2014 -- We are very positive about growth potential in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular. We view the livestock sector positively as well, even though the dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. WTO entry has not triggered major changes in government support to the sector, but we expect a small reduction in the overall budget allocated to agriculture over the medium term, which poses downside risks to our forecasts.
- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 67.9% to 63.5mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export markets in Asia are expected to result in increased wheat production.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2018: 33.6% to 608,800 tonnes. A shift from milk to more value-added products such as cheese will come from rising incomes and an ageing population in the country.
- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 60.2% to 4.8mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong domestic demand and government initiatives to ensure a domestic production surplus. Specifically, the government is implementing programmes to improve the country's slaughter and processing capabilities.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 1.0% (up from 1.3% in 2014; predicted to average 2.0% over 2013-2018).
- Consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average in 2014 (down from 6.8% y-o-y on average in 2013).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.6% y-o-y to US$98.4bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 6.7% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.
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Key Revisions To Forecasts:
- Beef: 2013/14 production revised up to 1.39mn tonnes (from 1.25mn tonnes previously) as new slaughterhouses are coming online.
- Poultry: 2013/14 production revised down to 3.18mn tonnes (from 3.3mn tonnes previously) on latest official estimates.
- Pork: 2013/14 production revised down to 2.2mn tonnes (from 2.3mn tonnes previously) as smaller holders struggle to compete with larger producers
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