Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/07/2014 -- Despite some signs of life in the Philippines' trade outlook, we caution that a relatively middling outlook for demand from the world's largest economies, as well as the cyclical nature of global semiconductor demand, suggest that an export recovery will likely be transitory. On the other side of the ledger, we note that the Philippines will remain somewhat beholden to hot money flows as speculation over US monetary policy continues to run high, and that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may look to adjust its policy measures in kind.
Philippine exports have shown some nascent signs of life recently, posting their second straight monthly year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in July 2013. Indeed, the 2.3% y-o-y growth in outward bound shipments marked the first time since December 2012 that exports expanded for at least two straight months, reflecting their poor performance throughout the course of H1 2013. Electronics exports in particular proved to be a key outperformer in July 2013, jumping by a healthy 11.2% y-o-y following a 2.2% contraction in June 2013.
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With that in mind, our forecasts for 2014 across the freight modes are healthy with air freight set to be the outperformer this year with y-o-y growth anticipated to come in at 5.66% to reach 755,000 tonnes.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.66% to 755,000 tonnes.
- 2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.30% to 29.05mn tonnes.
- 2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 5.30% to 22.14mn tonnes.
- 2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.75%, with exports growing 5.50% compared with import growth of 6.00%.
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