Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/27/2014 -- According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), March 2014 auto sales in Thailand declined 46.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 83,983 units, bringing sales for Q114 to 224,171 units, a decrease of 45.8% y-o-y. Despite a rise in month-on-month (m-o-m) sales for the past two months, y-o-y growth rates remain firmly in negative territory.
We cautioned in February 2014 that a prolonged stalemate of the country's precarious political situation would result in enduring weakness in the market and exert a downside risk to our forecast ( see 'Slashing Forecasts Due To Political Unrest', February 24). True enough, the volatile situation suggests no meaningful compromise to the ongoing political turmoil and our Country Risk team does not expect the situation to improve significantly over the remainder of the year, which will also result in a weaker growth outlook ( see 'Weaker Growth Outlook Due To Domestic Concerns', April 23).
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Against such a backdrop, we believe that monthly vehicle sales will remain at current depressed levels and find it difficult to breach the 100,000 mark for the rest of 2014. Until there is a proper resolution to the crisis, pent-up demand will not come back into the market. Therefore, we have downgraded our full-year sales forecast from a contraction of 12.2% previously, to 21.4%, which will see sales hit 1.05mn units for 2014.
Used Car Segment Facing Pressure
The sales glut in the Thai auto market resulting from the first car scheme has seen the prices of used cars tumble some 30% since the beginning of 2013. Additionally, the used car segment faces strong competition from the new car market due to the latter's lower leasing rates and more attractive promotions. We expect pressure on used cars to remain even more acute, now that there is a glut of supply of new cars in the market.
Our view for a recovery in vehicle sales in now pushed to 2015, when we expect sales to grow 2.6%. However, we forecast only mild annual sales growth of 2.5% on average...
The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI?s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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