Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/11/2014 -- While significant unrest carries on in Kiev, as yet it is difficult to attribute the effects such movements will have on economic growth, consumer expenditure and activity within the food and drink sector. At the time of writing, former President Yanukovych has been forced from government. A government in which Yanukovych has any form of power is likely to be rejected by the population, and we outline four of the frontrunners for the presidency as Tymoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyahnybok.
In the short term, we believe that economic and private consumption growth will be hit by the events in Kiev, on top of the regional underperformance we forecast prior to recent events. Our substantially belowconsensus expectation for economic activity to contract by 1.4% in 2013 looks increasingly likely to play out, with real GDP shrinking by an average of 1.3% y-o-y across the first three quarters of the year, against consensus expectations of 0.1%.
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption = +7.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017 = +7.9%
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +6.9%; CAGR to 2018: +7.5%.
- 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +7.2%; CAGR to 2018: +7.3%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales (local currency) growth: +8.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +8.3%.
Key Company Trends
Nestle Announces US$4.4mn Investment In Svitoch Plant In Ukraine: In July 2013, Switzerland-based food company Nestle announced that it would invest US$4.4mn in a confectionery plant in Ukraine, reports Just- Food. The company said the investment will be made in developing and modernising its Svitoch factory in Lviv, western Ukraine. Nestle intends to establish new production lines, asset modernisation and environmental projects, installation of LED lamps and energy saving programmes.
DuPont Launches US$40mn Seed Production Plant: In June 2013, US-based chemical company DuPont launched a US$40mn seed production plant in Poltava Oblast, Ukraine, to help local farmers raise their productivity, reports Food Business Review. The company's production facility will be operational for the 2013 and 2014 seasons to cater to the rise in demand for Pioneer-brand maize, sunflower and oilseed-rape hybrids in the country.
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