Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2015 -- In 9M14, Bulgarian passenger car sales rose 9.0% year on year (y-o-y), following a meagre 0.6% y-o-y increase in September. While the growth over 9M14 is positive news for the sector, it does represent a slowdown from the 15.2% growth in H114 and the 25% growth recorded for 4M14. This is in line with our view that growth would temper over Q2 and Q3 as low base effects come into play. We are maintaining our forecast for growth of 10% in passenger car sales in 2014, as we expect the deceleration in the rate of growth to cease over Q4. We expect this cooling period for vehicle sales to carry over into 2015, with projected growth of just 3.8% due to wider economic stagnation.

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Part of the problem for the new vehicle market is the practice of hanging on to older vehicles. According to a report published in June 2014, data from the Bulgarian traffic police show that 39% of all registered vehicles are more than 20 years old. As of end-April 2014, the total number of registered vehicles was 3.57mn. This means there is a burgeoning second-hand market, also borne out by the traffic police data which show that 50,962 used vehicles were imported in Q114, compared with 7,406 new vehicles.

Sales of light commercial vehicles (LCV) in the first nine months of 2014 grew 13.9% y-o-y boosted by low base effects from the second half of last year. We expect higher growth over the rest of Q4 due to further low base effects as well as private consumption and fixed investment slowly recovering as well as increasing construction activity. We are revising up our forecast for 2014 LCV sales to 14%, up from 7%. We are also revising up our forecast for 2015 to 5%, up from 3% previously. We project that this growth will be propped up by a renewed expansion in the construction sector and continued consumption growth.

There is positive news in the production segment, however. In August 2014, Litex Motors, the local partner of China's Great Wall Motors, announced an added EUR70mn investment in...

The Bulgaria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Bulgaria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bulgaria.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian automotives market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMIs Autos Risk Reward index

BMIs Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market?s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

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