Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/31/2014 -- BMI View: We hold a positive view on the agribusiness sector of Mozambique, as the country has the potential feed itself and is able to tap into abundant and largely unexploited land and water resources. Of the utmost importance is boosting agricultural productivity by improving irrigation, and introducing technology to small-scale farmers. The government has also highlighted the need to improve food and nutritional safety and to facilitate more agricultural reform. Our optimism about Mozambique's agriculture industry largely hinges on the government's continued support for the sector. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's National Plan for Investment in the Agricultural Sector, Mozambique still requires investment of US$3.1bn between 2013 and 2017 to ensure that the country is self-sufficient in food. The plan aims to transform subsistence agriculture, predominant in the country, into commercial agriculture, and using the sugar domestic sugar industry as a model for development.
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- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 34.4% to reach 538,000 tonnes. As one of Mozambique's key cash crops, long-term sugar production growth will reflect an increase in export-driven demand and the opening up of new markets; output is also expected to benefit from investment in biofuels.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 33.3% to 60,380 tonnes. Among the factors underpinning our strong growth expectations are Mozambique's expanding population and the country's rising standards of living.
- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 19.8% to 2.6mn tonnes. Corn will remain one of Mozambique's most important food crops; it will also retain its status as an important source of feed for poultry and livestock. Yet despite benefiting from efforts to raise production levels, the crop will remain vulnerable to variations in rainfall.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$721mn in 2014 (down from US$758mn in 2013; growth expected to average -0.4% annually between 2013 and 2017).
- Real GDP growth: 8.2% in 2014 (up from 8.0% in 2013; projected to average 9.0% annually between 2013 and 2017).
- Consumer price inflation: 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (up from 4.4% in 2013; predicted to average 5.9% over 2013-2017).
Key Revision To Forecast
- Sugar production revised up for 2012/13 and 2013/14 to 410,000 and 460,000 tonnes respectively (compared with previous forecasts at 380,000 and 415,000 tonnes). The ongoing investment in the sugar sector will boost the short term outlook.
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