Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/16/2014 -- 2.8% GDP Growth Expected This Year

BMI remains fundamentally positive about the Polish economy, although a little below consensus in our growth forecasts. Underpinning this is our view that domestic consumption will remain strong, stimulated by low inflation, rising employment, and low interest rates. Household consumption represents a larger share of the Polish economy - around 60% - than in some of its Central European neighbours (around 50% for Slovakia and the Czech Republic). This gives Poland extra resilience to any headwinds coming from the external environment. That said, we are also positive about the contribution net exports will make to the country's ongoing recovery. This, however, is where we are a little more cautious than the consensus. We see risks that declining Asia demand will feed through into weaker German factory output, in turn dampening demand from Polish supply chains. For 2014 we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.8% versus consensus forecasts of 3.2%. Nonetheless, the acceleration in economic activity remains reasonably robust, and domestic and external conditions will remain accommodating. We expect growth to gather pace to 3.1% next year. Poland should achieve average annual growth of 3.3% over the next five years.

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Although expanding on 2013 levels, the outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. After a slow 2013, greater GDP and foreign trade growth in 2014 will make a positive contribution. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. The port of Gdansk is an example, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services.

Headline Industry Data

- 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by...

The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage:

Executive Summary:

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis:

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments:

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts:

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

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