Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/30/2014 -- While shale gas exploration has thus far presented a mixed picture, there have been positive below and above-ground developments in recent months. However, while Poland could see its first commercial flow rates in 2014-2015, we remain cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's shale gas production. At the moment, the need for additional exploration, the fact that most companies will likely wait until new regulations are passed before taking final investment decisions on shale gas projects, and assuming that projects take three years to be developed, we have only factored in significant shale gas production into our forecast from 2018-2019 onwards. We note that risks lie to the downside, depending on the industry reception of the new regulations and below-ground results.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:

- While shale gas exploration thus far has presented a mixed picture, there has been encouraging signs from shale gas exploration over the past few months, from Lane Energy's Lebien LE-2H well in Northern Poland and San Leon Energy's Lewino-1G2 well, where the highest hydraulic fracture pump rate outside of the US was recorded.
- Significant above-ground developments have also provided more optimistic sentiments towards the industry in recent months. The new Environment Minister announced that he would change the proposed shale gas licensing, regulatory and taxation draft laws to re-incentivise exploration. Two more businessfriendly shale gas bills (one reducing red-tape and regulatory delays and the other concerning the tax regime) have received government approval and are in the process of being reviewed at the parliamentary level.
- While Poland could see its first commercial flow rates in 2014-2015, we remain cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's shale gas production. More time, additional exploration and below-ground data will be required to obtain a better idea of the country's actual shale gas potential. Just as fracking became commercially feasible in the US after more than two decades of experimentation, it will take time for below-ground understanding to be developed and for Polish wells to become less costly to drill. In addition, given that the need for additional exploration, the fact that most companies will likely wait until new regulations are passed before taking final investment decisions on shale gas projects, and assuming that projects take three years to be developed, we have only factored in significant shale gas production into our forecast from 2018-2019.

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