Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/28/2014 -- Faster-than-expected economic growth last quarter has led us to revise our healthcare and pharmaceutical forecasts slightly upwards.
As forecast previously, BMI expects Portugal's healthcare market to return to growth in 2015, while pharmaceuticals will not return to growth until 2019. This is because while Portugal exited its bailout programme in May 2014 without the need for a new financial package, government austerity measures are likely to curb pharmaceutical reimbursement. Portuguese public hospitals are unable to reduce their deficits, constraining any rises in per capita spending. The shortage of healthcare professionals has left hospitals understaffed, as the emigration of young Portuguese is exacerbating the healthcare burden. We forecast that Portugal's healthcare market will return to growth in 2015, while pharmaceuticals will only return to growth in 2019.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: EUR3.48bn (USD4.59bn) in 2013 to EUR3.28bn (USD4.40); -5.6% in local currency and -4.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q 2 14
- Healthcare: EUR15.10bn (USD19.93bn) in 2013 to EUR15.08bn (USD20.21bn) in 2014; -0.1% in local currency and +1.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q 2 14
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In Q314, Portugal sits at the bottom of our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) for Western Europe, with a score of 57.7 out of 100. Portugal posts below regional average scores for all indicators.
Key Trends & Developments
- According to the IMF fiscal monitor, Portugal has contained wage increases in the healthcare industry as part of containing overall costs. The country now faces a shortage of nurses and doctors. In May 2014, the Portuguese Nurses Union (SEP) warned that certain basic emergency services in the Algarve are at crisis point due to a lack of human resources
- In its 2014 budget, the government announced an exemption from the real estate tax for hospitals and health
The Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Portuguese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Portugal to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Portuguese pharmaceutical and healthcare market
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Portuguese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Portugal
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables
BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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