Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 08/04/2014 -- BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, our Mining team believes that growth will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors in particular. However, imports of containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as the central bank embarks on a rate hiking cycle. We have moderately downgraded most of our forecasts for the country following the release of full-year 2013 data.
Headline Industry Data
- Rail freight growth will be 3.0% in 2014, and will average 3.3% to 2018.
- Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2014 is forecast to increase by 4.2%. Over the medium-term we project a 4.8% average annual increase.
- 2014 total trade growth is forecast at 3.8%, and to average 4.4% over the medium term.
- Road freight volumes are set to expand by 6.5% in 2014, and to average 6.8% over our forecast period.
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Key Industry Trends
Strike Violence At Ngqura: The South African port of Ngqura has been struck by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) strike that has affected business across the country. The strike began on April 25 and was ongoing as of June 5. The strike has not been peaceful, with properties belonging to workers at the port who have elected not to go on strike being petrol bombed and vandalised.
South Africa And Swaziland Conduct Rail Study: Swaziland and South Africa's rail parastatals will deliver a feasibility study to assess the best way to join up a rail link to transport freight from road to rail between the two nations by end-2014. Swaziland Railway and South Africa's Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) partnered in 2011 to present a concept study for a 146km rail service from Lothair in South Africa to Sidvokodvo in Swaziland to ease congestion on South Africa's coal line and congestion caused by freight transportation into Swaziland, according to TFR's...
The South Africa Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the South African freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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