Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/03/2014 -- Espicom Industry View

- Despite tentative improvements in relations between Baghdad and Erbil, the political situation in Iraq

continues to deteriorate. The level of political violence in Iraq has increased significantly over recent
months. July was the deadliest month in more than five years according to the UN mission in Baghdad.
Iraq's radical Islamist insurgency has become increasingly active after a popular protest movement which
developed since the end of 2012 in predominantly Sunni provinces of the country was crushed by the
government. The Sunni minority - comprising approximately 30% of the total population - feels
increasingly sidelined by the government, led by Shi'a Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, while the ongoing
sectarian war in neighbouring Syria will continue to inflame tensions in the country. BMI believes the
country's political blocs will reach some form of agreement which will avoid the descent into outright
civil war. Under a scenario whereby political risks continue to increase, however, prospects of an
eventual partition of the country should not be underestimated.

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- In US dollar terms, GDP totals US$322.9bn in 2013, equal to US$9,563.8 per capita. BMI projects real

GDP growth of 10.5% and 10.7% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. This is a revision on BMI's projections,
down from 11.2% in 2013 and 14.5% in 2014 previously, primarily due to the prospects for the oil sector
over the coming few quarters. That said, BMI reaffirms its constructive view on the country's mediumterm
economic outlook and sees private consumption and exports remaining the key growth drivers of the
economy. BMI forecasts real growth averaging 10.3% between 2013 and 2017, making Iraq the fastest

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