Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/28/2014 -- We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the country's confectionery industry and our belief that large changes to the country's sugar production quotas are likely to occur in the coming years. We see upside potential in the livestock sector, as the government's supply of discounted credit has aided growth in recent years. We see some growth potential for the grain, dairy and rice sectors, though we believe the country's production growth in these segments will be hampered by high domestic production and input costs. Agricultural output will generally increase in 2015/16, primarily due to base effects which affected production in the 2014/15 season.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 16.9% to 18.1mn tonnes. We expect the country to remain a large importer of wheat over the medium term despite reasonably strong domestic production growth.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 7.7% to 2.5mn tonnes. This will be in line with strong growth in the confectionery industry and our belief that production quotas will be reformed.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 2.6%, down from 4.0% in 2013.
- Consumer price inflation: 8.8% average in 2014, up from 7.5% average in 2013.
- BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to USD59.6bn in 2014/15, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.6% between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

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Key Developments

Turkey's fruit and vegetable sector will particularly benefit from the one-year import ban implemented by Russia on agricultural goods from specific countries in August 2014.

Just under two-thirds of imports of...

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