Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/17/2014 -- Low growth in the Turkish polymers market persisted into Q114 as a result of the depreciation of the lira, but BMI's latest Turkey Petrochemicals Report anticipates strengthening growth over the rest of the year amid robust performance in the automotive industry and a rebound in the construction industry.
Demand for major polymers such as polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene declined in Turkey in Q114 owing to the fall in domestic currency. Turkey's central bank had increased its overnight lending, borrowing and one-week repo rates to ease the situation. However, the rate hike had not helped resolve the payment issues in the polymer market. Payment remains an unresolved matter for domestic PE and polypropylene (PP) converters. Subsequently, a few domestic PE converters suspended production lines and major domestic petrochemicals producer Petkim stopped producing at full capacity.
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Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Through its investment programme, Petkim aims to double in size by 2018, with a new olefins complex and downstream units planned as part of its investment programme. Refinery construction at Aliaga began in October 2011 and should be completed by 2017, delayed from the initially planned 2014 - meeting all the company's naphtha feedstock requirements.
- In Q413, PolyOne Corporation began production in a new speciality polymer facility in Istanbul, helping to diversify and add value to Turkish petrochemicals production. The facility provides high-level production, service and flexibility characteristics required by PolyOne's customers.
- In 2014, we forecast a 9.1% increase in total vehicle production in Turkey, as the domestic market continues to grow, albeit fairly modestly, and exports to a resurgent European market increase. This is a brighter outlook than our previous quarterly report, reflecting improvements to the EU's economic recovery, and should support rising consumption in engineering plastics.
- We forecast 5.3% real growth in the construction sector over 2014 and growth should remain buoyant over the short-term thanks to projects already under construction fuelling industry value. This should boost consumption of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polymer piping.
- Turkey is in 12th place in BMI's Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) this quarter with its score unchanged at 48.9 points, down 0.1 points due to a slight deterioration in country risk caused by a decline in long-term political risk. Turkey is 1.3 points behind Slovakia and 3.8 points ahead of Romania.
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