Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/08/2014 -- Ukraine remains a promising yet risky pharmaceutical market investment prospect. For example, in addition to persistent political issues, the country has also been unable to roll out public health insurance, which has been discussed for years. Indeed, the draft law 'On Mandatory State Social Health Insurance' was published on the Ministry of Health's website for public debate only as recently as November 2013, though it had previously been suggested that the rollout of the healthcare insurance system would start in early 2015. Nevertheless, we hold a positive outlook on the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market over the long term, as we believe that the eventual rollout of national health insurance coverage and reimbursement of medicines in the medium term will spur growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: UAH31.84bn (US$3.94bn) in 2012 to UAH34.05bn (US$3.70bn) in 2013; +7.0% in local currency terms and -6.0% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast significantly lower in relation to previous quarter, on account of macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: UAH103.60bn (US$12.82bn) in 2012 to UAH109.23bn (US$11.87bn) in 2013; +5.4% in local currency terms and -7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecasts unchanged in relation to the previous quarter.
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Risk/Reward Ratings: Ukraine is seen as one of the least promising longer-term pharmaceutical markets within 20 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries surveyed in our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). While volume demand is expected to continue growing in the coming years, the country's operating environment remains extremely unfavourable.
Key Trends & Developments
- In October 2013, Alba Ukraine won a health ministry tender for the procurement of drugs used to treat chronic hepatitis in children and adolescents. The company also plans to apply for the tender of ribavirin and peginterferon (in various doses) for a cash consideration of US$919,000 (excluding value added tax). The ministry plans to use the proceeds generated from the tenders to purchase the ELISA test systems for studies on serum TORCH-infections and other infections, as well as sexually transmitted diseases
- In the same month, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved the draft law on amendments in the country's tax code, which would cut down the value-added tax on the supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients to improve the availability and affordability of medicines in government healthcare facilities. The draft law would also expand the possibilities for healthcare and better access to medicines prescribed by doctors and healthcare institutions.
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