Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/13/2014 -- China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with GDP slowing, consumer trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredient prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price-fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.
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- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 18.1% to 242.7mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support.
- Pork consumption growth to 2018: 21.6% to 65.4mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.
- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 9.5% to 15.3mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$543.5mn in 2014 (up 1.9% compared with 2013, growth forecast to average 3.0% annually between 2013 and 2017).
- 2014 real GDP growth: 7.1% (down from 7.7% in 2013, forecast to average 6.1% between 2014 and 2018).
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 2.6% y-o-y ave (same than in 2013, forecast to average 2.7% between 2014 and 2018).
- 2014 central bank policy rate: 6.00% ave (same than in 2013, forecast to average 5.80% between 2014 and 2018).
Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Corn production forecast for 2013/14 revised up, to 213.6mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast at 210.5mn tonnes). The expected increase is predominantly attributed to an expansion by almost 2 percent in the area planted as well as higher yields, following favourable weather conditions.
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