Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- We believe that Colombia's economy will expand at robust growth rates in the coming years, characterised by improved macroeconomic conditions and an increasingly friendly business environment.
Stronger private consumption will drive the majority of growth, although gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will play an increasingly important role over the coming quarters.
The infrastructure, mining and hydrocarbons sectors are particularly well positioned for growth.
We expect President Juan Manuel Santos to win re-election in May, and anticipate broad policy continuity throughout the next administration.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our real 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 4.3%, following a downward adjustment to our 2013 growth estimate, from 4.3% to 4.1%, due to weaker-than-expected economic activity in Q413.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
The Colombian peso weakened more than we expected this year, prompting us to revise our 2014 average exchange rate forecast from COP1,880/US$ to COP1,980/US$, implying a 5.9% depreciation from last year's average exchange rate of COP1,869/US$.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside Risks: Elevated foreign investment inflows into the country following Colombia's upgrade to 'investment grade' by all three major ratings agencies could drive growth even faster than expected. In addition, a successful agreement during the ongoing peace negotiations between the government and the country's main left-wing insurgent group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), would likely result in even greater foreign investment as risk perception improves.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Albania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- United States Business Forecast Report Q2 2014