Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/09/2014 -- Over the long term, the Indian economy presents one of the best growth stories globally. The Indian population is the second largest in the world and is forecast to continue to grow for decades. Real GDP will also grow at an average of around 6% to 2023, with per capita incomes rising at a similar rate. We forecast that inflation will average at around 4% over the longer term, which should be a sustainable level for the economy. We maintain a bullish long-term outlook on food consumption within the country, especially as multinationals penetrate the market with greater force, and industry regulation becomes more favourable to foreign investors. However, the country will experience significant headwinds in the short term, being affected by a general emerging markets slowdown and a weak Indian rupee. The country also has one of the largest income inequalities in the world, as well as significant infrastructure and bureaucratic issues. That said, the sheer size of the market will result in impressive growth across many sectors over our forecast period.
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Headline Industry Forecasts
- 2014 food consumption growth = +6.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2018 = +6.5%.
- 2014 alcoholic drink local currency value sales growth = +11.7%; CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +11.4%.
- 2014 soft drink local currency value sales growth = +16.2%; CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +14.7%.
- 2014 mass grocery local currency retail sales = +14.5%; CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +12.2%.
Key Company Trends
Ongoing Interest In Indian Fast Food: Valued at US$12bn according to the Financial Times (FT), there remains a great deal of scope for growth within the Indian fast food sector, primarily from Western firms. New firms have been steadily entering into the market, though the Indian consumer's substantially different food and cultural taste, as well as the country's poor infrastructure, remain significant stumbling blocks for Western fast food retailers.
Western interest in the Indian fast food industry is as strong as ever, with Krispy Kreme, Burger King, McDonald's and Yum! Brands' Taco Bell having all announced expansion plans or new openings in the country in the past few months. According to the FT, the Indian fast food market is currently worth US $12bn, with foreign brands making up only 5% of this. With the market dominated by local independents providing traditional Indian cuisine, there is a great deal of room for multinational chains to establish themselves.
Walmart's Return To India Highlights Potential: US based grocery retailer Walmart will re-enter the Indian mass grocery retail (MGR) market with a new partner, having ended its deal with Bharti Enterprises in October 2013. The U-turn by Walmart highlights the massive potential offered by the Indian MGR sector, outperforming that of all developed nations.
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