Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/02/2013 -- As the Chinese government boosts agriculture productivity in its drive to ensure national food security, we expect government subsidies to continue to grow. In 2011, this spending reached CNY134.5bn (US$21.2bn), with a large portion being channelled into seed, fertiliser and fuel subsidies. That said, we believe the country will inevitably grow more reliant on imports of key grains such as corn, wheat, sugar and even rice in the long term as consumption growth exceeds production growth. Yield improvement would be the fastest way to meet growing demand, and we note that the recent verbal acceptance of genetically modified (GM) seeds is an acknowledgement of the need to recalibrate the government's previously staunch stand against GM products in this respect.
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- Soybean consumption growth to 2017: 43.8% to 102.1mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by economic growth, which is leading to rising incomes and thus greater meat consumption. Growth will also be driven by strong demand from the livestock sector (for soybean meal), and as soybean oil is the most popular edible oil in the country.
- Pork production growth to 2016/17: 19.4% to 61.6mn tonnes. Production continues to be encouraged by elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output in the coming years.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 24.0% to 17.7mn tonnes. Chinese incomes are rising, supporting demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$433.4mn in 2013. Growth will average 2.7% annually between 2012 and 2017.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 7.1% (from 7.7% in 2012, forecast to average 6.4% between 2012 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.8% ave (from 2.6% in 2012, forecast to average 2.7% between 2012 and 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 6.00% ave (from 6.00% in 2012, forecast to average 5.67% between 2012 and 2017).
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