Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/05/2014 -- We have revised downward our forecast for real GDP growth in Ghana in 2014, to 5.1% from 6.4% previously. Our analyst in Accra reports that consumer spending is slowing down owing to high inflation. Meanwhile, the cedi is weakening rapidly, owing to structural macroeconomic weaknesses.
Looking beyond 2014, we expect growth to pick up as oil production rises, inflation stabilises and there is more tangible progress on fiscal consolidation, all of which would boost investor sentiment. We forecast that growth will fluctuate between 6.0% and 8.0% over 2015-2018.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +10.16%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +9.7%.
- 2013 beer volume sales = +8.00%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +7.52%.
- 2013 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.00%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +8.31%.
Key Industry Trends
Fan Milk Cuts Ghana Investment: In spring 2014, senior officials at Fan Milk stated that the company is to cut investment in Ghana because of electricity outages that are hampering storage and distribution. According to MD Jesper Bjorn Jeppesen, the company will spend about GHC15mn during 2014 in Ghana, an amount lower than originally planned.
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Guinness Ghana Breweries Introduces Africa's First Portable Packaging Line: In February 2014 Guinness Ghana Breweries introduced the first ever portable spirits packaging and bottling line in Africa, used for Gilbey's Dry Gin. The GHC9.36mn packaging line, called the CUBE, consists of 5 shipping containers that are connected together to provide a standalone blending and bottling operation. The new line is intended for various markets in Africa and Ghana is the lead market for this innovation.
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