Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/10/2014 -- Despite the formation of a government in December 2010, we expect political progress to remain slow and stability fragile. A broken power-sharing agreement and persistent sectarian tensions present key risks.

The Iraqi economy will be among the fastest growing in the world over the coming five years, driven by an aggressive increase in oil production and the start of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our forecasts for real GDP growth, and project the economy to expand by 10.9% in 2014, compared to our previous forecast of 9.2%. This largely result from BMI's Oil & Gas research team's more conservative outlook on oil exports in 2013 compared to our previous quarter, with base effects ensuring an acceleration in oil production in 2014.

Key Risks To Outlook

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Attacks on oil infrastructure due to terrorism or acts of political protest present downside risks to our growth forecasts.

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