Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/13/2013 -- The Philippines Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about how ongoing external weaknesses impact on the Philippines' economic outlook.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Philippine retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the emerging hard landing in China on the Philippine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Philippine retail sector, as they seek to maximise growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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The Philippines comes last in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 41.5% between 2013 and 2017, from US$13.94bn to US$19.72bn as domestic operators start modernising their outlets and increase the variety of products on offer.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in market liberalisation, which may encourage global multinationals to enter the country.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI has revised upwards its full-year 2012 private consumption growth outlook to 5.0% from 4.3% as a result of the services sector's stronger-than-expected performance in Q112, bringing our full-year headline GDP forecast for 2012 from 3.9% previously to 4.2%. The Philippine economy expanded by 6.4% year-on-year in Q112, beating expectations with strong services growth of 8.5% amid an improving domestic outlook.
- BMI has upgraded its private consumption forecast for 2012 to 5.0% from a previous forecast of 4.3%. Private consumption contributed a strong 4.6pp to overall growth in Q112, expanding by 6.6% y-o-y and reflecting the positive consumer story in the archipelago. Stoked by strong wage growth near 7.0%, remittance growth of 5.4% and dovish inflation expectations (we see inflation ending the year at a moderate 3.4% versus its current rate of 3.0%), consumer confidence improved from -20.6% in Q411 to -14.7% in Q112.
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