Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/15/2014 -- Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing volumes across the whole freight transport sector, 2014 will signal further growth in line with Romania's macroeconomic outlook.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 4.90% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 4.25% in 2013.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2014. The mode did not manage to defy the downturn but so far appears to have defied European Union (EU) pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region, that is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, although currently is expected to grow at a slower pace. In the longer term the mode might benefit from the privatisation of Romania's national rail freight company CFR Marfa, which, however, is unlikely to happen until at least 2015.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 9%.
- 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.8%.
- 2014 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to grow by 7.6%.
- 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 3.1%.
- 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.6%.
- 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 4.9%.
Key Industry Trends
Romania Joins Viking Rail Project: Romania's Transport Minister Ramona Manescu signed a memorandum of understanding with her Lithuanian counterpart Rimantas Sinkevicius at the beginning of December in Brussels, allowing CFR Marfa to become a member of the Viking railway project and joining companies from Lithuania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey. As part of the project the goods from the Baltic States to Turkey and further to Asia will transit Romania instead of bypassing the country. Minister Optimistic About Infrastructure Upgrades: Romania's ports are one of the two sectors to be developed in partnership with China, according to Romania's Transport Minister Ramona Manescu, with railways being the other one. The minister, who was appointed in August last year, also said that the rehabilitation of the country's ports along the Danube should be completed during her term.
Risks To Outlook
The potential for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook on the Romanian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania forecast to strengthen. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 2.8% in 2014.
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