Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/05/2014 -- BMI expects Greece to spend up to US$5.7bn on defence in 2014. Between 2010 and 2013 we calculate that Greece has spent about US$6.6bn on defence on average annually during this period. For the remainder of the forecast period (2015-2018) we expect Greece to spend on average US$5.7bn on defence annually. We expect Greece to complete the forecast period spending up to US$5.9bn annually on defence in 2018. Despite the country's current serious economic problems, Greece is unusual as one of the members of NATO that routinely spends above the alliance's non-binding 2% of GDP defence spending target. Between 2010 and 2013, Greece spent an average of 2.5% of its GDP on defence. From 2015, we expect the proportion of its GDP which Greece spends on defence to decline slightly to an annual average of 2.4%.
Greece maintains a total of three armed forces: the army, air force and navy. Over the period from 2003 until 2011, Greece has maintained an average combined armed forces personnel size of 133,300.
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BMI has observed that Greece mostly maintained a negative defence trade balance between 2010 and 2013. We expect the defence trade balance to move into Greece's favour for the remainder of the forecast period. By 2017 and 2018 we expect Greece to have a defence trade surplus of US$7.1mn and US$9.2mn respectively.
BMI has observed a general increase in the value of defence exports made by Greek suppliers. On average, Greece exported US$15.9mn worth of defence equipment and services annually between 2010 and 2013. In 2014, we expect Greece to make defence exports worth US$19.6mn, with this figure set to increase to US $20.3mn in 2015. Greece imports significant quantities of materiel for its armed forces. In 2014 we expect Greece to import a total of US$18mn defence materiel and services.
We consider Greece to have a low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict. We also believe that the country is comparatively secure from experiencing a major terrorist attack, although we perceived slightly more risk to Greece from criminal activity. As such, we have awarded Greece an overall security risk rating of 70 for Q214. The country's average security risk rating for the period January 2007 until Q214 is 71.
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