Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/25/2014 -- BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result, we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector.
We forecast real GDP growth in Mexico to accelerate from 1.1% in 2013 to 3.3% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015. Following ongoing contractions in the construction sector and a slump in manufactured goods exports growth in late 2013 and early 2014 due to weather-related disruptions to production, we expect economic activity to re-accelerate in the coming months. Stronger public investment into infrastructure, after a government transition last year resulted in spending delays, will ensure the construction sector recovers from the contraction it experienced in 2013.
Ongoing signs of stronger US consumption bode well for Mexico's manufacturing sector, and we expect manufactured goods, especially those related to the autos segment, to pick up in the coming quarters. An improvement in construction and manufacturing will bolster labour dynamics, which underpin our expectations for private consumption growth to accelerate both in 2014 and 2015.
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Headline Industry Data
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 forecast to be 6.2%, reaching 30.5mn tonnes.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2014 forecast to be 7.5%, reaching 20.8mn tonnes.
- Mexico trade real growth forecast at 3.9% in 2014.
Key Trends And Developments
Shipowners W arned O n D rug C artel Presence At Mexican ports
Shipowners, charters and traders have been warned to check iron ore export cargoes from Mexico are 'legally safe' due to the believed involvement of drug cartels in the country's mining industry. BMI notes that last year, in response to increased criminal activity, the Mexican navy took control of two major ports; Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas, located in the states Colima and Michoac?n respectively.
Maersk Line To...
The Mexico Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Mexico.
BMI's Mexico Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Mexico.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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