Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/24/2014 -- The Polish recovery is strengthening, and has led us to upgrade our forecasts for this year and for 2015. One of the key drivers is growing external demand, which has boosted exports and begun to reduce unemployment.
Export- Led Recovery Gaining Strength
There is still some slack in the labour market, which is preventing a build up of demand-pull inflationary pressures. Industrial output is improving and the government's fiscal stance is moderately expansive. Poland's integration with the German export machine is a key positive, and we are predicting exports to grow by 10% this year and 11.8% in 2015. Improving household demand will also boost consumer goods imports. We now estimate 2013 GDP growth at 1.6% (up from1.4% in our last report) and forecast 2014 growth at 2.8% (up from 2.6%) and 2015 growth at 3.1% (up from 2.8%).
Within this context, the outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. After a slow 2013, greater GDP and foreign trade growth in 2014 will make a positive contribution. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. The port of Gdansk is an example, still enjoying double-digit expansion, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 5.4% (up from an estimated 4.9% in 2013)
- 2014 rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.7%, after a 4.2% fall the preceding year
- 2014 Port of Gdansk bulk tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by a still-strong 10.9% (slower than the estimated 12.5% surge in 2013)
- 2014 road freight is forecast to grow by 2.6%, after contraction of 2.4% in 2013
- 2014 inland waterway freight is forecast to...
The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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