Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/30/2014 -- According to figures from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) new vehicle sales in Nigeria totalled 52,000 units in 2013, up from 50,000 in 2012. The headline figure is broken down into 40,000 passenger cars (PC) and 12,000 commercial vehicles (CV).

Looking forward, there are indications that 2014 should prove a stronger year for new car sales, with BMI targeting 8% growth. There are a number of reasons for our near-term optimism on the local sales market, which we outline below.

First, we expect new car sales to be boosted by the launch of more significant amounts of local auto production across 2014, a result of the newly-introduced Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP). Increased local production should lead to cheaper prices for new cars in the country. Moreover, manufacturers are looking to concentrate on producing low-cost cars in the first phase of the NAIDP, which should appeal to cost-conscious Nigerian consumers.

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Turning to the macroeconomic backdrop, BMI's Country Risk team is still forecasting robust GDP growth rates of 6.5% for both 2014 and 2015, with the caveat that security issues, the impact of the upcoming presidential elections and uncertainty about monetary policy all have the potential to weigh on private consumption and investment over the near term.

Against this mixed backdrop, we are targeting a slight slowdown in new car sales growth in 2015, down to 5.7%. However, the broad trend will be positive over the balance of our forecast period to 2018. We believe that Nigeria's growing middle class will continue to drive demand for passenger vehicles and will, in turn, encourage further expansion into the market by international producers. Interest in the sector is also being aided by investment in the country's road network, leading to an increase in car and motorbike sales.

On the production side, Nigeria is currently taking steps towards re-establishing local auto production, following a period...

The Nigeria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Nigeria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Nigeria.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Nigerian automotives market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI?s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

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