Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/14/2013 -- BMI View: We acknowledge the Nigerian government's endeavours to crack down on counterfeit drugs and reduce medical tourism out of the country, in addition to achieving, in our view, the overly ambitious goal of relaunching the National HIV Vaccine Plan. However, BMI maintains that the government needs to address fundamental issues in the healthcare sector as a first priority. Poor infrastructure, a brain drain of health professionals and inadequate funding of the public system mean enrolment in the sector will continue to be slow, hindering growth in the market. In the pharmaceuticals sector, BMI maintains the view that strong growth lies ahead, based on the rapidly growing population and emerging middle class, though high unemployment and low per capita spending, in addition to weak regulatory and intellectual property (IP) laws, are significant risks to the uptake of medicines in the country.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: NGN143.65bn (US$921mn) in 2011 to NGN166.82bn (US$1.05bn) in 2012; +16.1% in local currency terms and +14.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q412 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
- Healthcare: NGN1,592.71bn (US$10.22bn) in 2011 to NGN1,751.29bn (US$11.04bn) in 2012; +10.0% in local currency terms and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q412 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
- Medical devices: NGN30.00bn (US$192mn) in 2011 to NGN35.42bn (US$223mn) in 2012; +18.1% in local currency terms and +16.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q412 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013

Risk/Reward Rating: Nigeria's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers has remained stable over the last three quarters, as indicated by its consistent Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) of 38.1. As a result, and with little movement in our Middle East and Africa (MEA) RRR matrix, Nigeria maintains its bottom-tier position at 23rd out of 30 countries, ranking it below Ghana (42.2) and Gabon (40.0). Nigeria is regarded as a low-reward, high-risk proposition for multinationals because of drug counterfeiting, corruption and poor pharmaceutical regulations in the market.

Key Trends And Developments

- In August 2012, Nigeria faced a shortage of hospitals and medical professionals to treat serious medical conditions such as brain surgery, open heart surgery, treatment for complex eye problems and micro dissection surgery and as such medical tourism out of the country is on the rise. The government has indicated it will focus its 2013 budget on improving the quality of healthcare services at tertiary hospitals to try to reduce medical tourism out of the country.

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