Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/29/2014 -- The outlook for Angola's oil and gas sector is positive. Although technical challenges led to production issues in 2013, we expect the start of major upstream projects such as Total's CLOV to boost push output higher by end 2014. Over the next decade, planned projects and the tie-back of additional discoveries to existing infrastructure will support strong growth in output over the course of our forecast period. However, we see risks that technical setbacks, industry wide pressure to cut costs, and potential regulatory issues could result in delays to anticipated volumes. An upcoming offshore licensing round and progress on resuming normal operations at the Angola LNG underscore the opportunities in the sector.

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- The main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows: Initial estimates from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) put crude production at 1.72mn b/d for 2013. The Angolan government has conservatively forecast that production will reach 1.8mn b/d in 2014, but has previously said that output will rise to 2mn b/d by 2015. Our own figures are broadly in line with official projections. We forecast Crude Oil, NGL and Other Liquids Production to reach 1.88mn b/d in 2014, rising to 1.97mn b/d in 2015.
- Our optimistic outlook is based an assumption that production will continue to recover from setbacks witnessed in 2013, such as a force majeure from BP's Saturno crude stream, and that major new volumes will begin to deliver first oil. Several major upstream projects are also likely to received final investment decisions, which alongside a robust exploration schedule, should make 2014 a strong year for the Angolan oil sector.
- One key risk to this view over the medium term is industry wide pressure to rein in spending. Major players in the Angolan oil sector, including BP and Statoil, have yielded to global cost pressures and committed to tighter budgets. This could result in delays to projects set for FID in 2014 and 2015, or may result in changes to the current design of projects in order to reduce development costs. The investment decision on projects such as Chevron's Lucapa (FID now scheduled for 2014) have already been pushed back from previous years.
- We expect crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids production to increase from approximately 1.9mn b/d in 2013 to 2.43mn b/d in 2020. This is the result of projects that have recently come on stream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) or PSVM (150,000 b/d), or that are scheduled to come on stream in the coming years. From the end of the decade, we expect output growth to slow on the back of a plateau in output from major upstream projects. However, there is upside risk should new discoveries come online or recovery rates increased from existing projects.

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