Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/25/2014 -- In the case of Japan, a slightly different but similarly extreme, monetary experiment was responsible for the mini-economic boom seen over the past 12 months, but we are seeing increasing signs that this is fading fast. Real wages are collapsing, and consumer confidence is naturally being negatively impacted. While consensus expectations are for the impact of the sales tax hike to prove fleeting, we believe that the recent decline in activity is a warning sign of what is to come as people fear the sustainability of the current fiscal trajectory. Our recently-revised real GDP growth forecast of 0.9% seems well placed relative to consensus expectations of 1.4%.
We have downgraded our forecast for Japan's real GDP growth for 2014 to 0.9% from 1.3% previously as evidence mounts that the 'Abenomics' hangover is kicking in. We have also shaved almost half a percentage point off of our expectations for the country's long-term growth rate owing to negative developments in the country's business environment and the increasing likelihood that the authorities will redouble their stimulus efforts to the detriment of wealth creation and financial stability.
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A number of negative economic developments have caused us to downgrade Japan's real GDP growth outlook for 2014 and 2015. We now see real GDP growth coming in at 0.9% as opposes to the 1.3% previously expected. Recent weakness in purchasing managers index (PMI) readings, still-negative real wage growth, and the ongoing widening of the trade deficit are all factors contributing to our downward revision. Most recently, the collapse in consumer confidence indicates the fragile state of the economic recovery.
Despite the weakness in the yen, there is no evidence of a rebound in exports (the J-curve effect) as the hollowing out of the domestic manufacturing sector over the past decade is not something that will be easily reversed. The combination of a record wide trade deficit and collapsing real wages highlight the underlying...
The Japan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analyzing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.
BMI's Japan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Japan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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