Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/19/2014 -- We maintain a cautious outlook on the agribusiness sector in Pakistan, as growth in key segments - wheat, rice and cotton - will remain impeded by high input costs, lack of infrastructure, inefficient government policy and vulnerability to climatic changes. Relatively weak GDP growth relative to other major Asian economies and the precarious security and political environment are expected to continue inhibiting investment and growth for the foreseeable future. Gaining the EU's GSP (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) Plus designation will help to drive demand for cotton, but domestic producers do not look well placed to meet this demand.

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Key Forecasts

- Cotton consumption growth to 2018: 28.7%, to 14.4mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements with the EU will see a increase in demand from the textile industry.
- Rice production growth to 2017/18: 21.0%, to 6.6mn tonnes. Production growth will mainly be a result of base effects; year-on-year (y-o-y) average growth after 2012/13 will be sluggish as demand for Pakistani exports stutters and domestic consumption remains low.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 3.4%. Down from 3.6% y-o-y in 2013.
- Consumer price inflation: 9.0% in 2014 (up from 7.4% in 2013).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$41.4bn in 2014 (down from US$41.9bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 2.4% on average to 2018).

Industry Developments

The EU's decision in December 2013 to allow duty-free or preferential access for around 3,500 products including textiles will support another substantial increase in Pakistani cotton demand in 2014. EU approval of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) Plus status to Pakistan was effective from January 1 2014, extends to 2017 and will allow 20% of the country's exports to be imported into the EU with no tariff payable and a further 70% at preferential rates. We now expect cotton consumption to increase 10.0% to reach 12.3mn tonnes in 2014 as the textile industry gears up for a potential doubling of exports during the years out to 2017.

Pakistani farmers already struggling with the high cost of inputs are set to see prices for fertiliser rise in response to increased taxes. Fertiliser company Engro has announced that it will raise prices from PKR1,722 to PKR1,900 per 50kg bag to cover the costs of a new tax to raise money for the proposed gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan. Other fertiliser companies are expected to follow suit.

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