Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/16/2014 -- Our outlook for Peru's agricultural sector remains positive. The livestock sector is very dynamic, and investment into the country's ethanol sector is boosting sugar production. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by a lack of infrastructure and investment, but there is scope for strong growth in both, particularly as Peru is becoming increasingly recognised for organic and speciality crops. We caution that a lack of profitability threatens to weaken the dairy sector; this could be further exacerbated by the entry into force of the free trade agreement with the EU. The country is set to ben efit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains as well as the weakness in the Argentine peso, from where it imports a great deal of its grain.

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Key Forecasts

- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 1.44mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017/18: 12.0% to 1. 35 mn tonnes. The rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see demand for sugar expand in the coming years.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD11.1bn in 2014 (stable from USD11.1bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 6.8% on average to 2018).
- 2014 real GDP growth: 4.8% (down from 5.0% in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 5.0% on average between 2013 and 2018).
- 2014 consumer price index: 2.8% year-on-year (stable compared with 2013; forecast to grow annually by 2.9% on average between 2013 and 2018).

Industry Developments

Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase, and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over coming years. A depreciating Argentine peso will result in cheaper grain...

The Peru Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Peru.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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