Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/05/2014 -- During the forecast period from 2012-2022, the growth of the UC market will be driven largely by the entry of Johnson & Johnson's (J&J's) Simponi and Takeda's Entyvio, which will lead to an increase in the overall number of patients being treated with biologics in the US, 5EU, Japan, and Canada.
Another key event affecting the UC market is the anticipated launch of biosimilars, given that the patent expiry of the UC blockbusters, Remicade and Humira are set to expire in the US in 2018 and 2016, respectively.
Overall, major barriers to the growth of the UC market include -
- Remicade and Humira losing patent protection in the mid-forecast
- Austerity measures favoring generic prescribing
- Biosimilars are predicted to face low uptake due to the lack of regulatory guidelines in some markets, such as the US
In 2012, GlobalData estimates that the global UC market reached $4.2 billion across the 10 healthcare markets covered in our forecast: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Canada, China, and India. By the end of the forecast period, in 2022, sales across these markets will grow steadily to reach $6.6 billion, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the 10-year timeframe.
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Key Questions Answered
- How will the UC market (sales and patient numbers) evolve over the 10-year forecast period from 2012 to 2022?
- Which brands and specific drug classes did physicians select for their UC patients in 2012 and how do they foresee their prescribing behavior evolving over the next five years?
- How will the launch of late-stage pipeline therapies such as Entyvio and Kappaproct shape the future treatment landscape?
- What are the remaining unmet needs and opportunities for drug developers within the UC market?
- The UC market has predominantly been driven by two TNF blockers, namely J&J's Remicade and AbbVie's Humira. Although these TNF blockers have monopolized the UC market for almost a decade, the balance is about to be tipped, with Takeda's Entyvio imminently entering the market in 2014 and J&J's Simponi launching in 2014 as well, stealing market share from Humira and Remicade.
- Remicade and Humira will also be hit by their respective loss of patent protection in 2018 (US), 2015 (EU) and 2016 (US), 2018 (EU). Europe has already approved a biosimilar to Remicade, Celltrion's Remsima, which will be marketed by Hospira under the brand name Inflectra in the EU. Due to lack of regulatory guidelines and the current debate about indication extrapolation for biosimilars based on a clinical trial in one indication, initial biosimilar uptake will be low, but by the end of the forecast period, in 2022 infliximab, adalimumab and golimumab biosimilars are forecast to become an established part of the UC market.
Companies Mentioned in this Report: Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Warner Chilcott, Salix Pharmaceuticals/Santarus, Shire Pharmaceuticals, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, InDeX Pharmaceuticals
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