Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/02/2014 -- The Polish IT market has relatively strong medium-term potential, with household spending on a positive growth trajectory. However, we have maintained our lower short-term growth outlook for the IT sector based on the rapid transition in consumer spending away from notebooks to low-cost tablets, a trend which will sustain unit sales but squeeze the total value of sales. Looking further ahead, we expect the market will see faster growth in from 2014 as the economic environment becomes more supportive. Key growth drivers within the IT market will continue to be the distribution of EU funds for ICT and information society-related initiatives, and rising real incomes in the later part of our forecast period which will underpin consumer and enterprise confidence.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: PLN12.4bn in 2014 to PLN14.9bn in 2018, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% in local currency terms. Forecast unchanged, with consumer substitution of notebooks for tablets a squeeze on value growth.
- Software Sales: PLN5.4bn in 2014 to PLN6.8bn in 2018, CAGR of 5.5% in local currency terms. Enterprise software market will continue to grow as vendors target small and medium enterprises, with security software solutions potentially outperforming as regional security concerns heighten.
- IT Services Sales: PLN12.4bn in 2014 to PLN17.1bn in 2018, CAGR of 7.9% in local currency terms. Cloud computing will be the leading growth area, but there are also large opportunities in outsourcing in which Poland is a regional leader.
Key Trends And Developments
Public contracts continue to be subject to significant uncertainty in Poland, with the Polish Central Anti-Corruption Bureau investigating alleged corruption offences by an employee of the Polish subsidiary of US technology firm Hewlett-Packard (HP), as well as keeping track of ongoing investigations in the US around IBM's business practices. Depending on the outcomes of investigations, both companies could potentially be excluded from applying for public contracts. Neither company has commented publicly about the accusations, but with IT contracts a political issue in Poland as a result of overspending found on several major projects, there is a downside risk for both in the short-to-medium term.
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