Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/11/2014 -- While shale gas exploration has thus far presented a mixed picture, there have been positive below and above-ground developments in recent months. However, while Poland could see its first commercial flow rates in 2014-2015, we remain cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's shale gas production. At the moment, the need for additional exploration, the fact that most companies will likely wait until new regulations are passed before taking final investment decisions on shale gas projects, and assuming that projects take three years to be developed, we have only factored in significant shale gas production into our forecast from 2018-2019. We note that risks lie to the downside, depending on the industry reception of the new regulations and below-ground results.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:

- While shale gas exploration thus far has presented a mixed picture, there has been encouraging signs from shale gas exploration in the past few months, from Lane Energy's Lebien LE-2H well in Northern Poland and San Leon Energy's Lewino-1G2 well, where the highest hydraulic fracture pump rate outside of the US was recorded. In addition, significant above-ground developments have also provided more optimistic sentiments towards the industry in recent months. Indeed, the country has seen the arrival of a new Environment Minister, Maciej Grabowski, who announced that his main priority is to speed up the extraction of shale gas. He highlighted that in the months to come he could change the proposed and unpopular shale gas licensing and taxation draft laws to re-incentivise exploration.
- While Poland could see its first commercial flow rates in 2014-2015, we remain cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's shale gas production. Just as fracking became commercially feasible in the US after more than two decades of experimentation, it will take time for below-ground understanding to be developed and for Polish wells to become less costly to drill. At the moment, the need for additional exploration, the fact that most companies will likely wait until new regulations are passed before taking final investment decisions on shale gas projects, and assuming that projects take three years to be developed, we have only factored in significant shale gas production into our forecast from 2018-2019. We note that risks lie to the downside, depending on the industry reception of the new regulations and below-ground results.

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