Fast Market Research recommends "Canada Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/06/2012 --BMI View: Production from oil sands will continue to drive Canada's oil production growth. However, exploration in the country's offshore acreage and unconventional resources could prove-up more oil and gas reserves to support the country's long-term growth prospects. The outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry is still a rosy one, though its upstream potential needs more support from infrastructure development.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

- Production from oil sands shows no sign of abating. With major oil sands projects such as ConocoPhilips and Total's Surmount and Total's Joslyn North due to come online, and as Shell increases output at its Abathasca Oil Sands Project, oil sands output is set to remain strong and drive production in the next decade. A boom in tight oil production from the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan and similar formations in Alberta will contribute to this surge. We expect oil production to increase from an estimated 3.71mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 4.40mn b/d in 2016. By 2021, total oil production could hit 4.97mn b/d.
- Gas production will initially fall owing to declining conventional output - especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan - from an estimated 149.9bcm in 2011 to 148.7bcm in 2012. Thereafter, we expect a reverse in this trend as shale gas output growth, particularly from British Columbia, outstrips conventional decline elsewhere in Canada. We have revised our forecast for gas production upwards, and project that it will increase to 157.0bcm in 2016 and reach 171.7bcm by 2021.
- While existing oil and gas reserves continue to deplete as fields mature, successes in unconventional and offshore exploration could prove-up reserves, posing an upside risk to our forecasts. In June 2012, Apache Corporation claimed that it made the world's largest shale gas discovery in the Liard Basin, British Columbia, with recoverable natural gas estimates at 1.34trn cubic metres (tcm). Statoil also confirmed following a discovery at its Mizzen prospect, offshore Newfoundland, that it could hold 100-200mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable resources.
- Gas demand will rise as the proportion of gas increases in Canada's energy mix. Consumption growth will also be propelled by the rising energy use at the oil sands facilities, as gas powers much of the oil sands production. Gas consumption is set to grow from 86.8bcm in 2012 to 97.2bcm in 2016. This upward trend will continue, with gas consumption expected to hit 112.6bcm by 2021.

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