Fast Market Research recommends "Malaysia Telecommunications Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/19/2012 --BMI View: Although the Malaysian mobile market still offers opportunities for organic growth - new MVNOs continue to enter the market, as reported in this quarter's update - network operators face considerable challenges as voice usage declines and customers prove reluctant to upgrade to postpaid services. Subscriber numbers fell in Q112 and mobile broadband usage was weaker than expected as operators tried to encourage greater voice consumption. In the background, though, non-voice service revenues are still growing, which is encouraging for those operators starting to build 4G LTE networks. That said, low-value SMS services remain a large part of non-voice revenue, so operators need to contain costs wherever possible. We therefore welcome moves by Maxis and Redtone to work together on building their next generation platform.

Key Data

- Mobile subscriber and mobile broadband user numbers declined by 0.3% and 2.2% respectively in Q112 (latest data available for analysis), prompting us to scale back our broadband market forecasts for the 2012-2016 period.
- 3G subscriber numbers grew much faster in Q112 than expected, by 9.2%. We have raised our forecasts to take this into account.
- ARPUs generally trended lower in Q112, due to lower voice usage and eliminations of prepaid accounts. We have lowered slightly our 2012-2016 forecasts for ARPU despite the trend for rising data ARPUs.

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Key Trends & Developments

Mobile operators are moving to deploy 4G LTE infrastructure in key parts of the country, even though the government has yet to formally award any of the nine selected licensees with their spectrum and operating licences. In recognition that duplication of assets and excess investment in plants and equipment will arise if building those networks independently, some operators have begun entering into infrastructure sharing agreements. We expect to see more announcements in H212, though we still expect that one or two licensees will exit the market.

Mobile non-voice service revenue totalled MYR7.787bn in 2011, up by 18.5% y-o-y. On average, nonvoice services accounted for 36% of operators' mobile service revenues in 2011, another y-o-y improvement. 'Pure data' service revenues are also on the rise, finally supplanting low-value SMS revenues early in 2012, which bodes well for those operators still investing heavily in 3G/3.5G infrastructure and subsidising high-end handsets such as the Blackberry and the iPhone.

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