Market Report, "Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014", Published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014"

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Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/11/2014 --Keeping in mind large underground potential, we maintain our optimistic outlook for Kazakhstan. However, we continue to underline risks related to resource nationalism and geological complications on major prospects that could deter foreign investors. Kazakhstan's choice to block the sale of ConocoPhillips' Kashagan stake in order to allocate it to CNPC illustrates the uncertainty of the business environment that surrounds the country.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Kazakhstan's oil and gas sector are:

- Kazakhstan has been strengthening its trading ties with China. Kairgeldy Kabyldin, head of KazTransOil, seems to have made a clear choice, as he declared in early March 2013 plans to increase oil exports to China by the end of the year. The decision to prioritise China National Petroleum Corporation (CNCP) over India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) for the acquisition of ConocoPhillips' Kashagan stake supports the view that Kazakhstan is supporting a stronger integration with China.
- KazMunaiGas (KMG)'s acquisition of a 10% stake in the Karachaganak gas and condensate project for a total pre-tax consideration of US$3bn, including US$1bn in net cash and the settlement of outstanding legal claims against the operating consortium, is a positive move for the foreign companies involved. The deal removes many of the legal uncertainties surrounding their operations in the country and opens the door to the long-delayed third phase of development, which will boost output from the field.
- We forecast that the estimated 2013 gas output of 11.2bn cubic metres (bcm) will rise to 15.2bcm by the end of 2017. Infrastructure bottlenecks and delays to key decisions with regard to associated gas have forced us to moderate our assumptions. The country's exports are also declining. Our demand forecasts see consumption reaching 15.6bcm in 2017, creating increasing risk that the country might have to rely on imports, if only on a temporary but regular basis.

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