New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/15/2014 --Robust unconventional and offshore production is set to buoy US crude oil growth, such that in the coming year we see the country as set to overtake Saudi Arabia to become the largest liquids producer in the world. The robust production story has also fed through to the US' downstream sector. Indeed, while we do not foresee the US ending its crude oil imports in the coming years, with rising liquids production and a ban on crude exports, this will encourage greater refined product output - especially diesel and liquefied petroleum gases. We are somewhat less sanguine on the country's gas production, at least in the short term, forecasting a more moderate growth trend. Indeed, while the severe weather in the first months of 2014 has seen Henry Hub prices rally, we believe the fundamental short-term nature of this move may not be sufficient to draw in a substantial uptick in capex. However, although for now we believe that E&P companies will prefer to channel capital expenditures toward liquids rich plays, by 2016/17 increased LNG export capacity and a rising petrochemical industry will begin to put more constant upward pressure on gas prices, reviving production growth.

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The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:

- According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to boost liquids production from an estimated 11.1mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 11.6mn b/d in 2014. We expect the strong liquids production growth will continue over the medium term, such that by 2018, we anticipate that total liquids output will have hit 13.0mn b/d, and 13.8mn b/d in 2023. - - Consumption patterns in the US have gone through a structural shift over the past four years towards much greater fuel economy and efficiency. Indeed, we expect that demand for motor gasoline, comprising the largest proportion of US fuels consumed, will continue to slump over the coming years. That said, we anticipate that total petroleum consumption and production will see some growth, buoyed by gains from distillate fuel oil (diesel) and liquefied petroleum gases. - - This uptick in distillate and LPG production - a reflection of a simultaneous trend of robust crude production and a ban on crude exports - will accelerate the US' recent shift from net fuels importer to net exporter. Indeed, we expect US fuels net exports to grow by 35% between 2012 and 2023, to reach 2.3mn b/d. While we are not advocating energy independence for the US, noting that it will continue to report crude oil (albeit in reducing volumes), we do see the US becoming an increasingly important fuels supplier, not just to Latin America and Europe, but even potentially Asia. - -

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