Q4 2012 Shipping Reports for Peru, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan


Dallas, TX -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/15/2012 -- RnRMarketResearch.com adds new 2012 Q4 research reports on “Shipping Market” to its store for Peru, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan

Peru Shipping Report Q4 2012

BMI maintains it’s below consensus 4.8% real GDP forecast for Peru. The country’s strong domestic demand story will continue in 2012, although we expect a drag from net exports. Significant external risks to the economy means we cannot rule out a more pronounced slowdown in growth in the latter stages of the year, on the back of weaker global demand for the country’s minerals and moderating global commodity prices.

The expected slowdown in the Chinese economy will drag on the country’s exports, putting some downside pressure on volumes, particularly at dry bulk handling ports. That said, we believe President Ollanta Humala is likely to implement pro-growth policies which will translate into stronger public consumption, which should in turn result in stronger demand for imports of containerised goods, boosting port volumes and supporting our positive outlook for the Peruvian port sector.

Headline Industry Data
- We are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow 6.9% in 2012 to 1.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- We expect growth of 4.3% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 19.3mn tonnes.

Key Industry Trends
Criticism Of Muelle Norte, Paita Port Concessions
The vice president of Peru’s congress, Manuel Merino, has called for the cancellation of the concession contracts for Callao port’s Muelle Norte terminal and Paita port following claims of alleged flaws in the tender processes. The country’s private investment promotion agency, ProInversión, awarded the concession for Callao’s Muelle Norte terminal to Dutch-based port operator APM Terminals in April2011, while local concessionaire Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos (TPE) has operated Paita port since September 2009.

US$150mn Investment In Mineral Conveyor In Puerto Callao
The construction of a US$150mn conveyor belt to transport iron ore from mining areas to the port of Callao will be completed in September 2013. The project being carried out by Callao Transportadora Consortium (CTC) formed by the companies Impala, Perubar, Chinalco, El Brocal and Santa Sofia Ports.

Congress Asked To Declare Puerto Éten Port Proposal ‘Of Public Interest’
A group of Peruvian lawmakers has sent to congress a bill aimed at declaring the building of a new port

Saudi Arabia Shipping Report Q4 2012
The outlook for the Saudi Arabian ports and shipping sector is sanguine indeed. The government stimulus package continues to make itself felt through increased consumer confidence which is driving up container volumes at the kingdom’s ports. Total tonnage volumes are also undergoing strong growth, and will be supported over the medium term by the massive house-building programme that is getting underway. The country is well supported by a growing fleet of dry and liquid bulk tankers which continues to expand through company mergers and vessel acquisitions.

Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP) total tonnage throughput growth forecast 29.5%, and to average 10.9% per annum to 2016.
- 2012 Jeddah Islamic Port container throughput growth forecast 15.8%, and to average 7.9% per annum to 2016.
- 2012 total trade real growth forecast at 5.9%, and to average 2.9% over the medium term.

Key Industry Trends
Authorities To Invest SAR2.8bn In King Abdulaziz Port: Saudi Arabia intends to invest more than SAR2.8bn (US$750mn) to expand the King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, according to the port’s general manager, Naeem Ibrahim al-Naeem. The port will expand its container terminal capacity by allocating SAR2bn (US$535.71mn), while it will allocate SAR800mn (US$213.28mn) for other facilities. The port registered a 10% increase in container handling to 822,093 units in H112, compared with 748,498 units in H111.

Middle East Box Interest Increases: Emirates Shipping Line has increased its exposure to the Asia-Middle East trade route. Emirates’ new Far East Gulf Express (FGX) service was launched on September 3 2012 and offers links between South Korea, China, Thailand, the Asian hub port of Singapore, Jebel Ali and Dammam. The new service sees Emirates for the first time offering direct calls to Thailand. NCC Signs Time Charter Deal For Three Chemical Tankers: Bahri’s subsidiary National Chemical Carriers Company (NCC) and International Shipping and Transportation Company entered into a time charter deal for three chemical tankers in August. The chemical tankers will transport petrochemicals liquid to the international ports for five years, with an extension option for another five years.

Taiwan Shipping Report Q4 2012

For the second quarter in a row, we are cutting back our GDP growth prediction for Taiwan in 2012. We
now expect growth of only 1.6%, compared to 2.2% beforehand. Lower exports, a lull in investment, and
signs of internal divisions and policy drift within the Taipei government have all played a part. A
significant change on last quarter is that foreign trade prospects are decidedly gloomier. In our last report we expected total trade (imports and exports) to grow by 0.9% in 2012. In contrast, we are now predicting a contraction of 3.5%. The recovery cycle will eventually kick in, but we have in effect pushed that back to 2013, when we are expecting GDP growth of 4.1% (previously 5.1%).

Slower growth this year will have a significant impact on port and shipping activity. We had already
factored that in, so our port activity forecasts have not changed significantly, apart from small
adjustments to take account of H112 data releases. Broadly speaking Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s largest port,
remains the most resilient. At Keelung, the country’s second largest port, the downside will be more
severe, with percentage falls of around 10% in both bulk tonnage and box traffic.

On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration is expected to continue, most likely for another four years. Further liberalisation of relations between Taiwan and mainland China remains on the cards.

In this context Taiwan’s ports and shipping lines continue to position themselves to work through a series of alliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to contract by 2.0% to 121.453mn tonnes,
over the mid-term we project an annual average increase of 0.9%.
- 2012 Port of Kaohsiung container throughput forecast to grow 1.0% to 9.736mn TEUS, over the
mid-term we project an annual average 3.0% increase.
- Port of Keelung will see tonnage contracting by 9.75% in 2012 to 68.066mn tonnes, with
container traffic down by 10.3% to 1.569mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 total trade growth forecast to contract by at 3.25% in real terms, compared to 1.9% growth in the preceding year.

Key Industry Trends

- Sabre Rattling In South China Sea Bodes Ill
- A diplomatic spat between Washington and Beijing has highlighted the tangle of competing territorial
- Taiwan Shipping Report Q4 2012

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