Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/09/2014 -- In 2015, we expect to see a not too dissimilar growth picture than 12 months previous across the country's major ports. Welcome news does arrive from the fact that we have revised up our real GDP growth forecast estimate for 2014 to 2.8% from 2.3% previously, given the stronger-than-expected growth rate seen in H1 2014, but we do expect growth to slow to 2.3% in 2015 as a weakness in external demand becomes more pronounced. This will temper any gains made in the Australian shipping sector this year.

Leading the way in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage growth will be the port of Fremantle (at 3.40%), which will also come in top of box throughput - 3.70% and slightly ahead of the port of Sydney (3.60%). The port of Melbourne will finally see positive growth return after two years of stagnation.

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Australian real GDP came in at 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) annualised in Q2 2014, slightly higher than consensus expectations but nonetheless marking a slowdown in growth from the strong growth seen in Q1 2014. Given the stronger-than-expected growth rate seen in H1 2014, we are revising up our real GDP growth forecast for 2014 to 2.8% from 2.3% previously. We remain below consensus (3.0%), however, and expect domestic and external economic weaknesses to continue to result in a slowdown in growth, with our 2015 forecast remaining at 2.3%.

Headline Industry Data

- 2015 port of Melbourne tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1.60%.
- 2015 port of Melbourne container throughput forecast to rise 1.10%.
- 2015 port of Sydney tonnage throughput forecast to increase 1.42%.
- 2015 port of Sydney container throughput forecast to increase 3.60%.
- 2015 port of Brisbane tonnage throughput forecast to rise 2.60%.
- 2015 port of Brisbane container throughput forecast to grow 3.00%
- 2015 total trade growth forecast to grow by 3.34%.

Key Developments

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The Australia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Australia.

BMI's Australia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Australia.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Australia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian shipping market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Australia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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