Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/10/2014 -- On the back of more promising a macroeconomic outlook in 2014, we believe the Canadian pharmaceutical and healthcare market will be more attractive to pharmaceutical companies. Although drugmakers will continue to face generic competition and drug pricing pressure in the country, improving healthcare coverage and broader drug reimbursement lists will increase patients' access to medicines and provide revenue-generating opportunities for drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CAD25.6bn (US$24.7bn) in 2013 to CAD25.9bn (US$24.6bn) in 2014; +0.9% in local currency terms and -0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast changed from Q114 due to changes to macroeconomic data.
- Healthcare: CAD206.5bn (US$198.5bn) in 2013 to CAD214.6bn (US$204.4bn) in 2014; +4.0% in local currency terms and +3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q114 due to changes to macroeconomic data.
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Canada scores 68.7 in BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix, making it the second-most attractive pharmaceutical market in America. We have re-weighted the RRR components to improve the tool, and adjusted scores for all markets in our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare reports.
Key Trends And Developments
- In January 2014, Valeant Pharmaceutical's CEO Michael Pearson announced the company's new strategic initiatives. Within three years, Pearson aims for Valeant to become one of the five most valuable companies in the world in terms of market capitalisation..
- In December 2013, the province of New Brunswick in Canada launched a new prescription drug coverage plan, which is designed to cover medicine costs for people who do not have insurance through their employers.
- In November 2013, the Supreme Court of Canada announced that Ontario's 2010 regulations, created to prevent pharmacy chains from selling their own generic versions of prescription medications, are a legitimate aspect of its efforts to control prescription drug costs.
BMI Economic View: We expect an improvement in Canadian real GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, with expansion of 2.1% and 2.3% in those years, respectively (up from 1.7% in both 2012 and 2013). However, our forecasts are below consensus, and we expect domestic demand to come under pressure as overleveraged households take a breather, the housing market cools, and commodity prices fail to recover.
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