Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/02/2014 -- Gas production from the Tamar field is expected to r amp up considerably since coming online in March 2013 and will mak e Israel self-sufficient in natural gas supplies for the first time ever. We expect stagnation in production growth through to 2015 as bottlenecks at the onshore receiving facility at Ashdod will limit production to 10.5bcm. This should be resolve d by 2016 in sufficient time to take output from the Leviathan field where development will begin in mid-2014. Gas from Leviathan could flow from late 2018 with export opportunities increasingly likely from this point. We see comparatively strong liquids upside with growing condensate volumes from Tamar and eventually L eviathan. Furthermore, near shore licences are showing greater likelihood of condensate and oil providing upside for the oil reserves outlook.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:
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- In October 2013 the Israeli Supreme Court upheld the government's decision to retain 60% of proven reserves for domestic use. Other groups were petitioning for a complete ban on exports. This decision also recommends the Tamar field to be used purely for domestic needs, while will allow up to 75% of Leviathan's reserves to be exported.
- Development of the Leviathan field will be delayed by as much as one year due to the slow progress on the government's move to push through export allowances. Development, which could have begun in 2013, will now begin in mid-2014 with first production expected in 2018.
- The Tamar natural gas field entered production in March 2013 at approximately 8.4mn cubic metres/day (3bcm annually) with ramp-up to a peak of 27.6mn bcm/day (10.1bcm). Our 2013 gas production estimate for Israel is 6.86bcm, a conservative average to factor in declining volumes from Mari-B and the ramp up (though not full) from Tamar.
- We have revised our gas production forecast due to bottlenecks at the Ashdod receiving terminal...
The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
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